Public Opinion and Ideology in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Daniel Tavana
Date
Apr 16, 2025, 12:30 pm1:30 pm
Audience
Free, Open to the Public

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Abstract

Until recently, the empirical study of ideology in authoritarian regimes has received little attention. In these contexts, can ideology be used to describe the ways in which ordinary citizens organize their political attitudes and beliefs? Do these attitudes and beliefs exhibit structure and coherence? Answers to these questions in advanced democracies rely heavily on latent variables and their connection to ideological and partisan self-identification. But in many authoritarian regimes, the absence of clear political alternatives (along with weak and fluid partisan attachments) suggests a need for greater theorizing and a new set of tools. Using original data from a large-scale nationally representative survey, I study ideology in the Islamic Republic of Iran. I draw on recent advances in psychology and sociology to introduce an understanding of ideology as a network. I find that citizen preferences are organized along four dimensions: democratic/authoritarian institutions, secularism/Islamism, internationalism/nationalism, and gender inclusivity/exclusivity. Statistical analyses suggest that political preferences are organized and coherent, but heterogeneous—and speak to the regime’s informational advantage in sustaining popular support for authoritarian rule.

Bio

Daniel L. Tavana is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Penn State. His research interests include a focus on elections, identity, and comparative political behavior, as well as the dynamics of political opposition in authoritarian regimes. He studies these issues in the Middle East and North Africa, where he uses a variety of methods and sources of data to study electoral politics. His research is motivated by a broader interest in understanding the origins of contemporary patterns of mass politics across the region. He received his Ph.D. from the Department of Politics at Princeton University in September 2021.

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Alison Cummins